Dr. Lester K. Spence

As you note, you can't use 10,000 Bic lighters to replace the lights in a baseball stadium. But who says baseball games have to be played at night?

The business model for commercial media is evolving, not dying. The closing of some traditional outlets who are slow or reluctant to adapt to prevailing economic conditions is inevitable. Oddly enough, I believe major newspaper outlets, including the Seattle P-I, are adjusting to the new demographic realities before our very eyes. The first order of business is to stop the bleeding; print circulation numbers and ad revenues are declining while online readership increases (!?!). Therefore, the logical thing to do is reduce or terminate the print operation. News coverage, in terms of scope and focus, is to be similarly altered. Ditto for the rate cards. Perhaps it no longer makes much sense for a full-service, mid-to-major daily to devote its (relatively) limited resources to national and international news content (and advertisers!) in a media environment with USA Today, various magazines (Time, Newsweek, etc.) cable and broadcast TV news networks, terrestrial radio, the Internet, satellite radio, and other mobile media. In such a contraction, a number of rank-and-file professional journalists will inevitably be kicked to the curb. I'm not sure that's necessarily a bad thing, :-D.

There's not really much evidence to justify your pessimism here, Les. Advertising and advertising sales shrink and expand roughly consistent with economic conditions -- true -- but advertising, specifically commercial advertising, is as fundamental to commerce as financial capital and credit. Every sponsor who backs off commitments to, say, the local daily, redirects their budget toward less expensive, more efficient activities. And they realize there are tradeoffs involved in ending accounts with the Baltimore Sun for a viral marketing campaign over the Internet. Money will be spent, regardless.

The real question is why are full-service, big city, daily newspapers still trying to play baseball at night?

ha!

here's the challenge. i do not believe that our past models are going to be very accurate in predicting what happens going forward. i don't assume that this is a normal correction, leading to a new equilibrium in which things will look more or less the same as they do now, with new tech driving the process. newspapers can and should cut their print operations if they lose money. but the service that newspapers perform at their best won't come back without an infusion of capital. i don't see that infusion coming. why would it?

I have to ask: do you believe the very nature of commerce is about to change due to an economic contraction? If yes, why?

I say values change, or more specifically, that which we find valueable changes, but the basic paradigms don't. Print display ads in most big city dailies don't represent the value to potential advertisers they once did. But access to tens of thousands of readers does. For many readers, $.50-$1.00 for information today that I heard, saw, or read in real time yesterday no longer has value. But access to information still does.

Doc during the 20s there were plans for a rail system but the great depression and WWll ended that endeavor;now this economic downturn has renewed that plan,but geographical racism has put a choke hold on this region, and now we must create a new business model and a rail system may not work in a urban farming landscape.

I think it is a little stretch to say DL Hughley and David Allen Grier shows are a dearth to diversity due to the fact those shows were bad "Chris Rock"/"Chappelle Show" copycats that could not deliver.

I don't think the problem is advertising based - I think the problem is an old guard trying to hold on the "mass media" instead of multiple, effective verticals. These media outlets are still trying to cling onto their old definition of "mainstream" and reluctant to accept diversity.

I believe the opportunity is when someone (including a smaller firm) is willing to take on diversity as it really is, they will see a resurgence in advertising revenue.

I always found it funny that the editorial board of these newspapers are defiant in not representing the views/stories of people of color, the ones who make up the majority of the city population.







I didn't realize you link to my comments, thanks!