Earthquakes and Aftershocks: Race, Direct Democracy, and Partisan Change
Since political scientists have been able to count, researchers have been interested in the types of historic changes that lead to shifts in partisanship in the electorate. More recently there have been questions about the degree to which the Latino vote is up for play. In “Earthquakes and Aftershocks: Race, Direct Democracy, and Partisan Change” a trio of researchers argue that explicit racial appeals like the ones used in California in the mid nineties may have the opposite effect of what was intended by Republican Party elites:
Although dramatic partisan change among the electorate is infrequent, the issue agendas of parties may produce large shifts. A major cause of such change is the politics of race. In a political environment charged with racially oriented issues, racial groups often align themselves with different parties (as witnessed most recently in the American South). Yet, if racial appeals violate norms of equality, these appeals may rebound on the party using them. Consequently, members of the (white) racial majority and racially targeted minority may both move away from the offending party. Using data from the California Field Poll, we find that racially charged ballot propositions sponsored by the Republican party during the 1990s in California reversed the trend among Latinos and Anglos toward identifying as Republican, ceteris paribus, by shifting party attachments toward the Democratic party. Our results raise serious questions about the long-term efficacy of racially divisive strategies for electoral gain.
Bowler, Shaun; Nicholson, Steven, and Gary M. Segura. 2006. “Earthquakes and Aftershocks: Race, Direct Democracy, and Partisan Change” American Journal of Political Science, vol. 50, issue 1 (January 2006)
